Is Iran’s nuclear program on the brink of collapse?

Iran’s nuclear program: Recent events and analyses suggest that Iran’s nuclear program is facing significant challenges, but it is not on the brink of collapse. Instead, it appears to be in a state of disruption and potential reconstitution following recent military strikes and ongoing international pressure.¹

Here’s a breakdown of the current situation:

• Impact of Military Strikes: In mid-2025, Israel and the United States conducted targeted military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.² These attacks, according to various reports, “set back” or “significantly set back” Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and damaging facilities like those at Natanz and Fordow.³ However, the strikes did not eliminate the program entirely.⁴
• Resilience and Rebuilding: Despite the damage, there are indications that Iran is working to rebuild and reconstitute its nuclear capabilities.⁵ Satellite imagery has shown efforts to repair and stabilize damaged structures. Iran also claims to have moved some of its fissile material and equipment to new, undeclared sites before the strikes, raising concerns that international monitors may have lost track of the program’s full status.⁶
• Enrichment and Stockpile: Before the strikes, Iran was enriching uranium to 60% purity, a level far beyond what is needed for civilian nuclear power and a short technical step away from weapons-grade levels (90%).⁷ The stockpile of highly enriched uranium was also large enough to be used for multiple nuclear weapons if Iran were to make the political decision to do so.⁸ While the status of this stockpile is now uncertain, the fundamental capability to enrich uranium remains.
• Political and Strategic Context: Iran’s nuclear program is deeply tied to its national identity and security doctrine.⁹ Some reports suggest that the Iranian regime views the program as essential for its survival and as a deterrent against external threats.¹⁰ This strong political will to maintain the program, even in the face of setbacks, makes a complete collapse unlikely.
• Ongoing Diplomacy and Sanctions: International efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear program continue.¹¹ The IAEA has found Iran to be non-compliant with its nuclear safeguards, and European nations have initiated “snapback” sanctions.¹² Negotiations are ongoing, but key issues, such as allowing Iran to enrich uranium, remain points of contention.¹³

In summary, while recent military strikes have dealt a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear program, it is not considered to be on the brink of collapse. The program has been disrupted, but Iran appears to be resilient and committed to rebuilding it.¹⁴ The situation is complex and ongoing, marked by a mix of military action, diplomatic efforts, and Iran’s determination to maintain its nuclear capabilities.